Middle Fork Lottery Odds
The Middle Fork of the Salmon is a sub-2% draw: nearly 20,000 people applied for 353 launch permits in the 2025 Four Rivers lottery, a 1.79% chance of winning.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 5, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 2% into about 9%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Four Rivers lottery (Dec-Jan)Application volume reported as "nearly 20,000". | 20,000 | 353 | 1.79% |
Sources: Recreation.gov — Middle Fork of the Salmon (4 Rivers) · Idaho News 6 — Four Rivers lottery odds reporting
How to improve your Middle Fork odds
- 1
Apply outside late June and July. Peak-flow prime dates carry the longest odds.
- 2
Early-season (May) and late-season (August-September) launches draw fewer applications, with flow and logistics trade-offs.
- 3
Cancelled launches are re-released on Recreation.gov throughout the spring and summer. Cancellation tracking is the realistic path for most groups.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
1.79% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates return to the booking system. PermitSnag checks Middle Fork continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Middle Fork lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Middle Fork lottery?
The Middle Fork of the Salmon is a sub-2% draw: nearly 20,000 people applied for 353 launch permits in the 2025 Four Rivers lottery, a 1.79% chance of winning.
How can I improve my Middle Fork lottery odds?
Apply outside late June and July. Peak-flow prime dates carry the longest odds. Early-season (May) and late-season (August-September) launches draw fewer applications, with flow and logistics trade-offs. Cancelled launches are re-released on Recreation.gov throughout the spring and summer. Cancellation tracking is the realistic path for most groups.
What if I lose the Middle Fork lottery?
Set a cancellation alert. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system all season. PermitSnag checks Middle Fork around the clock and tells you the moment one opens.