Half Dome Lottery Odds
The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 22% into about 71%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Preseason lottery (March)NPS allows about 225 day hikers each day (of a 300-hiker cap) | 35,289 | 22% | |
| 2024 | Daily lottery (2 days ahead)Weekdays ran 22%, weekends 14% | 35,561 | 19% | |
| 2023 | Preseason lottery (March) | 22% | ||
| 2023 | Daily lottery (2 days ahead)Weekdays ran 23%. NPS publishes no 2023 weekend rate — its 12% weekend figure is from 2021. | 29,292 | 19% |
Sources: NPS Half Dome Permit Lottery Statistics · NPS — Half Dome Permits
How to improve your Half Dome odds
- 1
Apply for weekdays. NPS reports weekday daily-lottery success at 22% in 2024 and 23% in 2023, against 14% on weekends in 2024.
- 2
Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. NPS says those permits are available "based on the estimated rate of under-use and cancellation of permits", so the supply tracks cancellations rather than a fixed daily number.
- 3
Cancelled preseason permits do not come back to the calendar — NPS folds them into the daily lottery, which is why the daily supply moves day to day. The way to catch them is to enter that draw.
Half Dome lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Half Dome lottery?
The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.
How can I improve my Half Dome lottery odds?
Apply for weekdays. NPS reports weekday daily-lottery success at 22% in 2024 and 23% in 2023, against 14% on weekends in 2024. Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. NPS says those permits are available "based on the estimated rate of under-use and cancellation of permits", so the supply tracks cancellations rather than a fixed daily number. Cancelled preseason permits do not come back to the calendar — NPS folds them into the daily lottery, which is why the daily supply moves day to day. The way to catch them is to enter that draw.