JMT Yosemite Lottery Odds
Yosemite wilderness permits for Donohue Pass trailheads (the John Muir Trail's Yosemite entry) are hardest in peak season: about 70% of applicants for mid-July through mid-August starts don't get a permit, an effective success rate near 30%. Odds improve steadily through the fall, rising above 50% by mid-September.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 5, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 30% into about 83%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Peak season (mid-July - mid-August)About 70% of applicants for this window do not receive a permit reservation | — | — | ~30% |
| 2025 | Shoulder season (by mid-September)Success rate rises steadily as summer demand tapers off | — | — | 50%+ |
How to improve your JMT Yosemite odds
- 1
Shift toward September if your schedule allows. Success rates climb from roughly 30% in peak summer to over 50% by mid-September.
- 2
Apply with a small group. NPS data shows 1-4 person groups have meaningfully better availability than groups of 9 or more across all Yosemite wilderness lotteries.
- 3
Consider alternate Donohue-eligible trailheads (Sunrise Lakes, Rafferty Creek, Lyell Canyon) - they connect to the same JMT corridor with different competition levels.
- 4
Missed the reservation window? Cancelled Yosemite wilderness permits are re-released; PermitSnag monitors availability and alerts you when a trailhead opens up.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
About 30% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches JMT Yosemite continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
JMT Yosemite lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the JMT Yosemite lottery?
Yosemite wilderness permits for Donohue Pass trailheads (the John Muir Trail's Yosemite entry) are hardest in peak season: about 70% of applicants for mid-July through mid-August starts don't get a permit, an effective success rate near 30%. Odds improve steadily through the fall, rising above 50% by mid-September.
How can I improve my JMT Yosemite lottery odds?
Shift toward September if your schedule allows. Success rates climb from roughly 30% in peak summer to over 50% by mid-September. Apply with a small group. NPS data shows 1-4 person groups have meaningfully better availability than groups of 9 or more across all Yosemite wilderness lotteries. Consider alternate Donohue-eligible trailheads (Sunrise Lakes, Rafferty Creek, Lyell Canyon) - they connect to the same JMT corridor with different competition levels. Missed the reservation window? Cancelled Yosemite wilderness permits are re-released; PermitSnag monitors availability and alerts you when a trailhead opens up.
What if I lose the JMT Yosemite lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking JMT Yosemite with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.