The Wave Lottery Odds
BLM publishes no success rate for The Wave. What is fixed and published is the capacity: a daily maximum of 64 people, with 48 awarded through the advance lottery four months ahead and the other 16 through the geofenced Daily Lottery.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Advance lottery (4 months ahead)48 people and/or 12 groups per day, whichever comes first. BLM publishes no success rate. | |||
| 2026 | Daily lottery (geofenced)16 people and/or 4 groups per day, whichever comes first; you must apply from within the geofenced area near Kanab. |
Sources: BLM — Coyote Buttes North Advanced Lottery (The Wave) · Recreation.gov Coyote Buttes North advance lottery
How to improve your The Wave odds
- 1
Use the Daily Lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It holds 16 of the 64 daily spaces and is geofenced near Kanab, so only people already nearby can enter it.
- 2
Enter every month. You apply during a calendar month for a permit in the calendar month four months ahead, and each person may submit only one application per lottery.
- 3
Keep the group to six. The maximum group size is 6 people and all group members must stay together for the entire hike, so a larger party needs more than one winning permit.
The Wave lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the The Wave lottery?
BLM publishes no success rate for The Wave. What is fixed and published is the capacity: a daily maximum of 64 people, with 48 awarded through the advance lottery four months ahead and the other 16 through the geofenced Daily Lottery.
How can I improve my The Wave lottery odds?
Use the Daily Lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It holds 16 of the 64 daily spaces and is geofenced near Kanab, so only people already nearby can enter it. Enter every month. You apply during a calendar month for a permit in the calendar month four months ahead, and each person may submit only one application per lottery. Keep the group to six. The maximum group size is 6 people and all group members must stay together for the entire hike, so a larger party needs more than one winning permit.